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Are Israel's Neighbors More Potent Than in the Past?

 Some geopolitical commentators emphasize that Israel's Arab and Muslim neighbors are not the countries they were in 1967 or 1973.   They are more populous, certainly.  But are they capable of acting in concert?

Crowds of protestors have made their outrage over the slaughter in Gaza known in Mideast Arab and Muslim countries.  That is a start.  But it seems easy for these countries' politicians to alter their speeches a little bit, and then do nothing.  The perfect example is Erdogan in Turkiye: he is the master of duplicity.

It is healthy to emphasize what all sides of the conflict share in common, instead of what divides them.  Although it might sound sarcastic at first, it really is true that all sides are united in having politicians that are lying sacks of shit.  Seriously!  That seems to be a fundamental part of the human condition that we all share, regardless of religion, ethnicity, or political creed.

Of course the BRICS+ organization is up and running, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Egypt as new members.  And Saudi Arabia and Iran are talking to each other these days.  But these arrangements are mainly diplomatic and financial -- not military. 

Thanks to the short-sighted opportunism of the Biden administration, America's strategic petroleum reserve is lower than it has been for decades, so America is vulnerable to an oil embargo.  And where is Israel getting its energy and water from, and how vulnerable are these to attack?

I am doubtful whether the Arab and Muslim countries are capable of acting in concert politically or economically with an energy boycott.  Maybe the biggest change from 1967 and 1973 is military.  Iran has a GPS system.  Russia has a better one.  Just by feeding satellite information to ground fighters, Russia and Iran can help them to be effective proxies.  (How effective would Ukraine have been against Russia if the USA hadn't been supplying them with information from "eyes in the sky?")

Israel's enemies have a lot of missiles and drones, which could mean that Israel's advantage in tanks and jet fighters is not the advantage it was in 1967 or 1973.  That might be the biggest change from 1967 and 1973.

This is always the picture I show to make fun of my own attempts at geopolitical analysis.


Anonymous said…
Wishing they would accidently nuke themselves with their stolen "secrets" and put us all out of their misery.