(Must I add that the title is meant tongue in cheek?)
As I read an interesting book on geo-politics, I am struck by a couple things:
1. How incompetent politicians and diplomats are at avoiding war. (Perhaps because they don't want to avoid it.)
2. How naive and easily deceived the masses are. They will believe anything. Immediately the war drums are being beaten. Preachers are talking about their War God from their pulpits. And how useful the Media is in starting a war.
3. How powerful hindsight is.
4. How poor I am at looking at international crises today, determining who is really behind it, what they hope to gain, and what is likely to happen.
In fact, #4 is so strong that I sometimes think that reading history is a waste of time. For instance I was surprised by Russia's military involvement in the current Syrian crisis. Then I was surprised by the recklessness of the War Party in Washington DC in wanting to send American planes and troops to Syria, despite the risk of an incident with the Russians. Such an incident feeds into #2 above. We have already survived one such incident when Turkey (a member of NATO) shot down the Russian bomber.
No doubt, the incident was planned to provoke Putin into doing something rash, but he was too 'cool a customer' to fall for the trap.
Very well then, it is time to be foolish and predict how this mess is going to play out:
1. Russia's military commitment is enough to stabilize their ally, the Assad regime of Syria. But it isn't enough to ensure its long term survival. But Assad will survive until Washington DC gets a new president.
2. Russia is creating a bargaining chip which they will cash in during the early days of the next American president's term. The Russians will pull out of Syria, and leave a hypocritical war against ISIL to NATO, while in the background, NATO will pull away from the regime in Ukraine.
3. Both Putin and the new American president will look like great states-persons and peacemakers, so their popularity ratings will soar.
4. Washington's neocon warmongers, and Sunni regimes in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, will then be free to finish destroying Syria, install a friendly puppet, build their pipeline from Qatar, and keep Israel happy now that Hezbollah in Lebanon has lost its ally, Assad, in Syria.
5. The Russians will be happy to keep NATO from expanding into the Ukraine.
6. A sense of crisis along the way will keep empowering Washington DC, London, and Paris to rub out the civil liberties of theirserfs citizens.
As I read an interesting book on geo-politics, I am struck by a couple things:
1. How incompetent politicians and diplomats are at avoiding war. (Perhaps because they don't want to avoid it.)
2. How naive and easily deceived the masses are. They will believe anything. Immediately the war drums are being beaten. Preachers are talking about their War God from their pulpits. And how useful the Media is in starting a war.
3. How powerful hindsight is.
4. How poor I am at looking at international crises today, determining who is really behind it, what they hope to gain, and what is likely to happen.
In fact, #4 is so strong that I sometimes think that reading history is a waste of time. For instance I was surprised by Russia's military involvement in the current Syrian crisis. Then I was surprised by the recklessness of the War Party in Washington DC in wanting to send American planes and troops to Syria, despite the risk of an incident with the Russians. Such an incident feeds into #2 above. We have already survived one such incident when Turkey (a member of NATO) shot down the Russian bomber.
No doubt, the incident was planned to provoke Putin into doing something rash, but he was too 'cool a customer' to fall for the trap.
Very well then, it is time to be foolish and predict how this mess is going to play out:
1. Russia's military commitment is enough to stabilize their ally, the Assad regime of Syria. But it isn't enough to ensure its long term survival. But Assad will survive until Washington DC gets a new president.
2. Russia is creating a bargaining chip which they will cash in during the early days of the next American president's term. The Russians will pull out of Syria, and leave a hypocritical war against ISIL to NATO, while in the background, NATO will pull away from the regime in Ukraine.
3. Both Putin and the new American president will look like great states-persons and peacemakers, so their popularity ratings will soar.
4. Washington's neocon warmongers, and Sunni regimes in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, will then be free to finish destroying Syria, install a friendly puppet, build their pipeline from Qatar, and keep Israel happy now that Hezbollah in Lebanon has lost its ally, Assad, in Syria.
5. The Russians will be happy to keep NATO from expanding into the Ukraine.
6. A sense of crisis along the way will keep empowering Washington DC, London, and Paris to rub out the civil liberties of their
Comments
Chris
But maybe you're right, a nuclear capable Iran may sit idly by while predictions 1-6 play out.
I'd be reluctant to ignore a nuclear capable tyrannical theocratic regime known to support terrorism who has explicitly stated on more than several occasions they will destroy another sovereign country filled with a "captive population".
But it does export terrorism and I do believe it will enrich weapons grade Uranium.
My poorly made point is a mideast geopolitical strategy that does not account for Iran may be missing too much. Iran has skin in the game.