The Iron Curtain was lifted about 20 years ago. If you are old enough to remember it at all, do you remember how unexpected, sudden, and easy it seemed? It didn't seem real. Why hadn't the possibility of Communism suddenly unraveling been predicted by the Media, presidential candidates, foreign policy experts, or learned professors?
Things are happening fast in the greater Middle East these days. Is it crazy to expect something really big to happen, despite the rather modest events so far? Remember how the protests in the Gdansk Poland shipyard started off modestly around 1981?
I don't think anyone should get carried away and expect Islamic countries in that part of the world to suddenly become "normal." People in the West might start reading wildly hopeful reports about no-more-torture, democracy, women's rights, legalized wine in restaurants, and scientifically-designed playgrounds for children, but recall that most revolutions end up under the thumb of some faction or megalomaniac who is lurking in the wings at the beginning of the revolution. There are few powerful institutions in repressive dictatorships -- other than the Army or Islamists -- who can move into the power vacuum in the aftermath of a revolution.
Comments
Say, wasn't the immediate cause of the grand-daddy of all revolutions -- the French -- a financial and food crisis?
I'm not sure how far we can get with historical analogies. There was not internet back then. And why on earth do dictators permit more-or-less free internet in their tottering fiefdoms?
Just sayin...
Tom in Orlando
The post takes it one step further and wonders about the imperial US government.
He looks at economic, political, and military trends since WWII. I highly admire Bacevich for his dedication and perhaps his hope that this country can be saved. He was against the Iraq war and his only son died serving there yet he still goes on, speaking and writing, trying to get his message across. I don't think I could find it in me to do that. It is easy to read.