While detesting the neo-con/Israel-first/Republican/Rapture Christian doctrine of permanent war, I still have an interest in being an 'armchair general' or military strategist. Yes, it is inconsistent, but if consistency is your hobgoblin, you are at the wrong blog.
The world seems to be beating Washington's pants off lately, with a Russian/Syrian/Iraqi/Iranian axis building up in the Mideast, and China becoming more assertive about its reclaimed islands in the South China Sea. One way to see these developments is as a growth in a new type of asymmetric warfare, aimed straight at the least trusted government on planet Earth.
Do any readers know of any good articles or books about asymmetric warfare? The Wikipedia article is a good place to start. They give several famous examples in history.
What if the world is learning to exploit the fragility and hollowness of the American economy to play 'chicken' with Washington, and to win? Washington's rivals around the world have more weapons than they used to have. They now have Permanent Zero Interest to exploit. If instability starts the American consumer tipping into a recession, the Federal Reserve can't lower interest rates like they used to -- the rate is already zero.
The presidential election cycle is another weapon for America's rivals. Anything that freezes consumer spending tends to tip the country over into a recession, which means that the party that occupies the White House will probably lose it to the other side.
Losing an election is not something that you can be a 'good sport' about, anymore. Washington's laws, regulations, subsidies, taxes, loopholes, contracts, court nominations, and economic favors are simply too important to surrender to the other political party. The truly private economy rots into insignificance. 'What's good for Washington is good for America.'
Permanent bubble-blowing is an integral part of America's economy, as is high unemployment -- properly measured -- and even higher under-employment. That means ever-increasing vulnerability because everybody besides Federal employees is hanging onto their job (and their ability to make loan payments) by their fingernails.
An oil exporter such as Russia should win a game of chicken with an oil-importing country like Washington. During threats of war in the Mideast, the price of oil will go up, to Russia's advantage.
But it seems that Washington's rivals are just learning how to exploit these vulnerabilities. In general, this is a development that much of the world can be cautiously optimistic about.
But I have a lot to learn about this subject, and won't be offended if commenters point that out to me.
The world seems to be beating Washington's pants off lately, with a Russian/Syrian/Iraqi/Iranian axis building up in the Mideast, and China becoming more assertive about its reclaimed islands in the South China Sea. One way to see these developments is as a growth in a new type of asymmetric warfare, aimed straight at the least trusted government on planet Earth.
Do any readers know of any good articles or books about asymmetric warfare? The Wikipedia article is a good place to start. They give several famous examples in history.
What if the world is learning to exploit the fragility and hollowness of the American economy to play 'chicken' with Washington, and to win? Washington's rivals around the world have more weapons than they used to have. They now have Permanent Zero Interest to exploit. If instability starts the American consumer tipping into a recession, the Federal Reserve can't lower interest rates like they used to -- the rate is already zero.
The presidential election cycle is another weapon for America's rivals. Anything that freezes consumer spending tends to tip the country over into a recession, which means that the party that occupies the White House will probably lose it to the other side.
Losing an election is not something that you can be a 'good sport' about, anymore. Washington's laws, regulations, subsidies, taxes, loopholes, contracts, court nominations, and economic favors are simply too important to surrender to the other political party. The truly private economy rots into insignificance. 'What's good for Washington is good for America.'
Permanent bubble-blowing is an integral part of America's economy, as is high unemployment -- properly measured -- and even higher under-employment. That means ever-increasing vulnerability because everybody besides Federal employees is hanging onto their job (and their ability to make loan payments) by their fingernails.
An oil exporter such as Russia should win a game of chicken with an oil-importing country like Washington. During threats of war in the Mideast, the price of oil will go up, to Russia's advantage.
But it seems that Washington's rivals are just learning how to exploit these vulnerabilities. In general, this is a development that much of the world can be cautiously optimistic about.
But I have a lot to learn about this subject, and won't be offended if commenters point that out to me.
Comments
After reading the Wikipedia article I see that we got out ass kicked in the Vietnam Asymmetric War. That taught the war hawks of this country a lesson and they changed their strategy to to fighting proxy asymmetric wars. Unfortunately, the United States does not know how to do that very well and most of the proxies have turned against their 'masters' i.e. the Taliban and Islamic State being the two most glaring examples.
For historical examples maybe the many wars of independence against Colonial Great Britain, France, Spain and the Dutch? I think all of those probably would be classed as asymmetric warfare i.e. South Africa and Northern Ireland.
Chris
Chris
I wish they were still fair about it, today.
Chris
We are a warlike people and always have been. Since much of our imported population were "trouble makers", criminals, revolutionaries ejected from their homelands, etc., why would you expect anything less ? Don't confuse these activities with the results of the more recent wars resulting from crony capitalism in which the Armed Forces are used to benefit a narrow group of oligarchs and their companies.
Generally, political wars are micromanaged from the Whitehouse versus wars in the National Interest that are brutal, short, and run by the military. The first versus the second Iraq wars are a reasonable example of the differences between the two. The US has never fought a war for Israel - instead it has forced the premature end of pretty much every Arab-Israeli war, usually much to the detriment of Israel. Get your facts right because your bias is way wrong in that regard.
The post is speculating about whether playing chicken with Washington at the right time will become a new form of asymmetric warfare. Maybe Washington will lose.
All government is criminal if you think that way - period - since government always equals coercion. It's like the morality of vegetarians, PETA, Greenies, and other SJW whackos who refuse to recognize reality. Evolution is not about morality; it is about survival of genetic lineages. Likewise, countries are about survival of cultures.