Yes, predictions are indeed hard, especially about the future. Still, it is that time of year. I predict that Trump will become a lame duck president in early November of 2018, and a one term president after that.
These predictions are not based on how much I like or dislike him. I am simply thinking like Machiavelli -- that is, non-morally -- and trying to guess how things will play out. If you were a highly paid political consultant, what would be your advice to Trump?
But first, consider a vivid memory of the day after the election in 2016. I was in a parking lot in Nevada, which is now a Blue State, with all its refugees from California. An old and very noisy pickup went blasting through the parking lot at high speeds. He had an American flag attached to the cargo bed of the truck. It is as if he were saying gloating, "Take that, you bleeping Hillary voters -- and why don't you move back to California!"
Presumably he had guns and Bibles in the front seat of the truck. He certainly was representative of the rural blockheads, Rapture Christians, and military worshipers in Flyover America.
Your advice to Trump is: you have done well to suck up to Israel by acknowledging Jerusalem as its capital. This will solidify your base with a large segment of the Republican party.
And it might behoove you to do some noisy sabre-rattling against Iran, too. But would it help Trump to start bombing Iran in September or October?
Conventional wisdom says that nothing is better for an embattled president than starting a war. Rally 'round the Flag! Rally 'round the president! Just ask presidents Polk, Lincoln, McKinley, Wilson, Roosevelt, Johnson, and the more recent ones. Of course he must be careful to make it look like the Other Guys fired the first shot.
But here is what really interests me: will this classic trick still work in a country of Permanent War? If a country is always at war, will the peasant masses rally 'round the president just because one more war is threatened. Is a new war even interesting news, anymore?
If ye olde trick no longer works, how will politics change? Some new crisis or emergency will have to be trotted out for embattled politicians to rally the masses behind their leaders.